PMO OpenIR  > 太阳高能及相关物理过程研究团组
The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Regiopn
Zhou Shurong ; Huang Guangli ; Wu Qindi ; Fang Cheng
2002
Source PublicationProgress in Astronomy
Volume20Issue:2Pages:122—129
Other Abstract运用模糊数学的理论和方法对太阳活动区的活动性进行了观测。为了综合评估和预测活动区的活动性,根据耀斑与黑子群特征因子间的关系,构造了录属函数。通过数据处理与分析,得到了对活动区活动性较好的预测结果,预测的准确性>95%。已成功编制了太阳活动预报的数据处理实用软件,根据黑子群的特征因子值,即刻就能得到活动区活动性的预报结果,预测结果表明模糊综合评估方法能很好地预报太阳活动。In this paper, the theory and method of fuzzy mathematics are applied to forecast the activity of solar active region. According to the correlation between the flares and the characteristic factors of the sunspot groups, the membership functions are constructed to comprehensively evaluate and predict the activity of solar active regions. The precise results were obtained by data reduction and analysis with the accuracy higher than 95% after comparing with observations. An applicable software of the data reduction is successfully compiled for the solar activity prediction. Thus, when the values of characteristic factors of the sunspot groups are inputted into the computer, the predicting results of the activity of solar active regions are instantly obtained. Forecast results indicate that the method of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a good one for the solar activity prediction.
Subject AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://libir.pmo.ac.cn/handle/332002/7931
Collection太阳高能及相关物理过程研究团组
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhou Shurong,Huang Guangli,Wu Qindi,et al. The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Regiopn[J]. Progress in Astronomy,2002,20(2):122—129.
APA Zhou Shurong,Huang Guangli,Wu Qindi,&Fang Cheng.(2002).The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Regiopn.Progress in Astronomy,20(2),122—129.
MLA Zhou Shurong,et al."The Fuzzy Forecast of Activity of Solar Active Regiopn".Progress in Astronomy 20.2(2002):122—129.
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