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PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS
Kubicka, M.1; Moestl, C.1,2; Amerstorfer, T.1; Boakes, P. D.1,2; Feng, L.3; Eastwood, J. P.4; Toermaenen, O.1,5
2016-12-20
Source PublicationASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
ISSN0004-637X
Volume833Issue:2Pages:7
Corresponding AuthorMoestl, C.(christian.moestl@oeaw.ac.at)
AbstractPrediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B-z. Predicting the strength and duration of B-z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B-z, and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1 au). On 2012 June 12-16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6 degrees away from the Sun-Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA-Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: -96 and -114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: -71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 +/- 23 km s(-1); observed: 488 +/- 30 km s(-1)), and for the timing (6 +/- 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun-Earth line.
Keywordsolar-terrestrial relations solar wind Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: heliosphere
DOI10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/255
WOS KeywordCORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; DRAG-BASED MODEL ; INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC-FIELD ; SOLAR-WIND ; STEREO MISSION ; VENUS-EXPRESS ; REAL-TIME ; 1 AU ; EARTH ; PROPAGATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000391169600130
PublisherIOP PUBLISHING LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://libir.pmo.ac.cn/handle/332002/23358
Collection中国科学院紫金山天文台
Corresponding AuthorMoestl, C.
Affiliation1.Austrian Acad Sci, Space Res Inst, A-8042 Graz, Austria
2.Graz Univ, Inst Phys, Kanzelhohe Observ IGAM, A-8010 Graz, Austria
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Purple Mt Observ, West Beijing Rd 2, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Imperial Coll London, Blackett Lab, Space & Atmospher Phys, London SW7 2AZ, England
5.Aalto Univ, Sch Elect Engn, FI-02150 Espoo, Finland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Kubicka, M.,Moestl, C.,Amerstorfer, T.,et al. PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2016,833(2):7.
APA Kubicka, M..,Moestl, C..,Amerstorfer, T..,Boakes, P. D..,Feng, L..,...&Toermaenen, O..(2016).PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,833(2),7.
MLA Kubicka, M.,et al."PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 833.2(2016):7.
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