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题名: PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS
作者: Kubicka, M.; Moestl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.; Boakes, P. D.; Feng, L.; Eastwood, J. P.; Toermaenen, O.
刊名: ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
出版日期: 2016
卷号: 833, 期号:2, 页码:255
英文摘要: Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B-z. Predicting the strength and duration of B-z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B-z, and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1 au). On 2012 June 12-16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6 degrees away from the Sun-Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA-Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: -96 and -114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: -71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 +/- 23 km s(-1); observed: 488 +/- 30 km s(-1)), and for the timing (6 +/- 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun-Earth line.
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://libir.pmo.ac.cn/handle/332002/17030
Appears in Collections:暗物质和空间天文实验室_期刊论文

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